Maximise Your Winnings: All You Need to Know About Value Betting
Value betting is one strategy every football bettor must have in their arsenal of strategies in winning wagers. It is a strategy of betting that in the hands of a shrewd and calculating bettor can give bookmakers a run for their money and yield really high long-term returns. There are many processes involved in value betting, including sourcing statistics from the best prediction site, however this guide will give you a comprehensive breakdown of everything you need to know on value betting strategy and how to find value bets.
What is a Value Bet?
A value bet happens when the odds offered by the bookmaker is higher than the likelihood of the event actually happening. While bookmakers rely on the latest technology to analyse matches and give statistics that will help determine the odds they give punters, they are still not above erring and this is what smart bettors take advantage of. With value bets, you are getting more value for your money at the expense of the bookmaker. Spotting value bets, however, does not come easy. You need to have updated information about the teams, statistics on the probability of the outcome and expert predictions. To get a value bet, for example, if based on your information and assessment, you see that a team has a 50% chance of winning yet the odds imply a 40% chance, the difference there is the “value” and placing your bet on the odd will give you a positive expected value (EV).
Understanding Value Betting Strategy
Value betting is one profitable betting strategy every punter needs to understand like the back of their hand. At its core, it involves comparing your own analysis of the odds on an outcome with that offered by the bookmakers. To do this, you will need to estimate the real probability of the outcome using historical data, statistical models for betting and expert insights and then juxtapose it with the bookmaker’s assessments to reveal the likelihood of the outcome.
By comparing these two values, you will get your expected value. Expected value in betting simply means the average profit you will make from placing your bet. When you have a positive EV, it means the profitability of the odds outweigh the risks.
One important thing you shouldn’t forget is that value betting is a long-term strategy and most likely will not yield immediate profits, unlike matched betting where you lock down odds. However, with value betting, whatever you lose now you will gain it back when you place enough value bets.
How Value Betting Maximises Your Winnings
Maximising your winnings with value betting is all about playing the long-term game. For you to be able to turn a profit, you must be consistent in placing bets with a positive EV over a long period of time. It goes without saying that this strategy involves discipline and patience. With enough discipline and patience to place small value bets consistently, the little yields that will begin trickling in will eventually accumulate into significant profits. Also, your profiting will be significantly aided by having a solid bankroll management for value betting such as the Kelly Criterion.
How to Identify Value Bets Like a Pro
Spotting value bets is never about gut feelings or intuition; rather, it’s about having a keen eye to spot market discrepancies through probability calculation and statistics. Here are a few tips to if you want to learn how to spot value bets like a pro:
- Shop for odds: once you have found a game or an outcome you would like to bet on, look around different bookmakers to find what odds they are offering. The trick here is to compare odds offered by sharp bookmaker odds to those offered by soft bookmaker odds to get an idea if there’s value or not. Sharp bookmakers usually offer odds as close to reality as possible while soft bookmakers are prone to underestimating the odds.
- Compare bookmaker odds: while shopping for odds may have given you an idea for the value bet, you still need to do your own calculations. Do an estimate of the probability of the betting outcome and compare with the bookmaker’s. If the bookmaker’s odds imply a lower probability compared to yours, you’ve gotten yourself a value bet.
- Run the numbers: If you want to eliminate any mathematical confusion, you can use an EV calculator to measure the potential profitability of the bet by converting odds to implied probabilities.
- Monitor market shifts: another way to spot a value bet is by keeping an eye out for activities that shift the odds. These could be injuries, lineup changes and so on.
Best Tools and Techniques for Value Betting
To maximise your winnings with value betting, there are a few tools you can employ:
- Value betting software: these software comb the internet to find the best value bets across bookmakers. They scan bookmaker odds to give the user underestimated odds. While some of these softwares are free, you may be required to pay for some or buy a premium subscription.
- Odds comparison websites: odds comparison websites gather odds from various bookmakers and lets you see what each bookmaker is offering on a particular outcome, saving you the time of manually shopping for them.
- Bankroll management calculators
- Record-keeping software
Conclusion
Value betting is not a get-rich quick scheme, rather it is a system of building small and reliable wins over time. This strategy is what separates weekend punters from professional punters because it takes logic, discipline and patience to pull off. If you would like to begin your journey to value betting, subscribe to Adam Choi today to get expert insights and predictions that will help you spot more value bets.